To Hit or Not to Hit

The first question here is whether to hit or not.  Then, once you make that decision, exactly what to play.

In a close race like this, hitting is an attractive alternative, but the problem here is the number of return shots and blots that you leave, combined with the strength of white’s board, means that if you get hit back you could get gammoned a lot.

And the problem with not hitting is that the race is still close, and you still might get hit.  So you have to weigh all of these factors and come up with the right decision.

As you can see by the Snowie evaluation below, the best play, by far, is not to hit.

In fact, hitting is the third best play, and it is a 15 percent error (major blunder).  If you look carefully at the numbers, you will understand why.

If you make Snowie’s No. 1, play, which is 21/18 15/11, you win the game about 57 percent of the time.  Further, you win about the same number of gammons that you lose…about 6 percent.

If you hit you only win 52 percent of the time.  If you hit 12 percent of the time you win a gammon, and 17 percent you lose a gammon, so in addition to giving away 5 percent wins, you are also giving up 5 percent in the gammon department.

The reason the best play is better is that you leave the lowest number of blots (1) and a very low number of shots so that if you do get hit, you have the chance to come back in and still win the game.  Every other play runs the risk of getting 2 or more checkers hit, and it that happens, forget it!