Backgammon Most Complicated Position

Playing 24/22- Pros & Cons

The problem with coming up from the 24 to the 22 point is obvious…if White rolls 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 3-2, 3-1, 3-2, or 2-2 he makes the 3 point and hits Black. Black is likely to stay on the bar and not roll a 1, or even if he rolls a 1, unless the other roll is a good number, he will break his prime allowing White to escape. That’s a pretty terrible scenario for Black, but coming up IS THE RIGHT PLAY BY FAR.

The odds in backgammon are the thing that matters; the odds are that even if he does come up, White won’t roll one of those numbers, and even if White rolls one of those numbers, Black still has better overall chances to win than he would by staying back. If Black stays back, he is much more likely to have to break his prime and thus make it easier for White to escape.

Playing the Least Bad Play

Many times our choices are not between two “good” plays, but between several “bad” plays, and we have to choose the one that is the “least bad.”

So how do we know, when we are looking at the backgammon board, which play is the least bad? It’s all about estimating the odds. In a situation like this, I ask myself “What is mostly likely to happen if I make one play, and what is most likely to happen if I make another play?” In this situation, I correctly estimated Black’s odds to be far better by coming up. But one thing I always do when I have a tough play is to check myself in Snowie or GNUBG…those two great backgammon programs that tell us what is right.

As you can see in figure 2 below, GNUBG picks 24/22 5/4 as the number one play, and further, it tells us that it is 13.6 percent better than the second-best play. That’s a huge percentage. What that means is that if you played this game 100 times making the best play, and 100 times playing the second best play, you would win 13 more games out of 100 when you make the better play.

Backgammon clearly is a game of skill, and although there is plenty of luck in the short run, players who make 13 percent errors on individual plays will lose a lot more games and matches that players who make the right play. Remember, that’s 13 percent more wins just because of this one play….in a typical game a poor player might makes 5 or more mistakes that big…add it up and he wins 65 percent less!

So if you are one of those people who curse the dice and complain about bad luck, you might try putting your matches and plays into Snowie or GNUBG and find out if it really is luck that is keeping you from winning in backgammon!